Here is my fundamental, technical, and news analysis of DXY . There are so many question remarks regarding the future of the US dollar forecasting a holding downtrend. I believe we will see the dollar drop to the September 1st low of 91.750. News Analysis
Reports of the likely hood of the stimulus passing before the elections are slim. As a result volatility will increase with low sentiment pertaining to future strength. Reports of the US treasury report release announced further delay of the release. Delays have occurred due to COVID-19 and the elections. This is the likely cover for the under lying issue of the US heavy watch list of suspected countries engaging in currency manipulation. (Un-contracting trading of bilateral goods, unauthorized foreign aid, and unmatched account balance). US treasury report is set to release further information on investigation findings which if negative would effect the economy and sentiment immensely. Among these countries include Switzerland ( put back on the list) so that should be an interesting pair to watch. USD Index reported dropping .22% and expected to maintain that low the upcoming week. Stocks will be avoided adding more volatility to the dollar. Fundamental Reporters state “Banks imply bullish calendar week ahead” to avoid the first double dip recession in 40 years .Experienced traders know banks often play trickery. Banks focus on one thing and one thing only. Make more money. Unfortunately banks need to be funded as the main priority. We all know what happens when banks fall. This “implication” is simply to psychologically reassure traders to keep trading, falling into the fakeouts skewed by the money holders. Of course banks are going to reassure the general population a double dip won’t reoccur. Thus I will disregard this information until I see it play out. The Chinese Yuan has been dominating the Dollar for quite a while. As long as the Yuan heavily ways down on the Dollar, the Dollar will be negatively effected. Given China’s continued economic growth following hits from the pandemic, and the Dollars uncertainty we will continue to see the Yan dominate the Dollar. This in turn yields low sentiment. And of course the hot topic of the upcoming week for the US are the elections. If Biden’s chances grow stronger towards the end of the week we may see some positive growth as the Democrats will essentially demand an agreement. Who really knows where the US stands financially apart from the front office. One can only make speculations on the opposition. If the week begins and ends with candidate uncertainty we may see added volatility . Technical My 1hr technical chart view indicates the the dollar will drop to 91.750. We are currently seeing a push to form the lower low which will give me added confirmation of a true downtrend. The price must close below the horizontal trend I presented to fit my forecast criteria. I believe the the trend will move in a downward holding (short volatile candles) I hope everyone took the time to read this over! Below are my sources. Sources
Daily FX