From the weekly price looks strong yet the weakness is seen on the 4hr and as always I’ll be giving you the missing pieces the WHY so we can understand the story of what price is saying and hopefully well make better trading decisions as well start using probability let firstly let me explain why this is so important. We as traders or retail traders never look at the probability of a trade we care for risk or reward IMO and I’m sure in the mind of the bigger players risk and rewards is second to probability cus you have the two but if the probability isn’t good you will take trade that you shouldn’t have regardless of how it fits your strategy! Meaning not all trades are worth trading. So let’s include this here so we can understand it .
1. Buy low sale high right.? Thus gu is high in price , we hadn’t see a nice correction..
this concept alone I know of two heavy hitters who trade nothing less than 100 lots wouldn’t look to buy. They look to sale and want a discount so they won’t buy regardless how high price go. It’s the ability to know when it’s worth your trade as all of our trades should be important to us it’s our investment yet we retailers will chase anything the market throws at us. allow me to walk you through this… as We don’t care about the content of the trade. we see a wedge we buy! A bat buy! A cat buy or sell whatever they mean. A head and shoulders SELL !!! A double top SELLLLLLLLLLL.!!!!! ok I get it I see the 50 sell post I get that what I have to say is Look what happen on nzdusd .. tons of post SELL! But WHY are we selling.? Cuz of price pullback at a high it was at before we sell? Yes! It’s a double top! Oh? I though a double top is valid when price BREAKS the necktie.. so what SELL SELL SELL AND SELL IT TO HELL . Gotta see some Of those charts ppl all way to the bottom. Like really? YES! I don’t care and sell it AND DO IT NOW!! . Ok OK so where’s our entry candle? So we see bears candles with long lower wick small in its range struggle to drop as the market slowed down and you want to SELL after price rushed up here strongly with mom candles With a tight range after a strong breakout of 60 pip or so right with hardly even bear candles in it and when it was they got swallowed and you want me to sell? 🤦🏾‍♂️ stop 🛑 So what a bout the content of these trades? Another example someone comment on my post about a m pattern ( one of yal most dearest trading view. Authors) completely overlooked my message to suggest that the pair as a m pattern and that it will play.. now to make my point the pair was in a monthly down trend for months and price was at an extreme at a historical low level. But he want to trade a top reversal pattern at a markets low🤔? What’s the probability of that trade being successful? Most likely it will bust cus the probability decreases just due to it placement. He should be looking for buy setups just like anyone should but everyone was posting sale setups. Why? We lack to understand probability! When I scout a pair the first thing I look for is where is price at is it high up or low in the chart. If it’s a high I’m not looking to buy that idc how price move I want a discount if not I’ll look for sale and if none is present I’ll take my investment else where . My point apply content and probability with your strategy! So here again gu is in need of a nice a pullback that reflects on a weekly chart cus it’s trend look horrible and I wouldn’t invest in it in this state to buy my opinion do you!
But again we have a few strong weekly candles that are strong at this high which only make me believe a correction is near
So here on the 4hr we can see the struggle
Let me show you can understand WHY. So here we see that gu had a complex correction now after this price took a blow that it’s struggling to recover from and it shows
So from that low price went into a range the blue box
It push up and did a gap pullback this is where price pulls back to the same zone it came from these deep pullbacks are signs of weekness next after that we see gu move up and range out after every push .
Price travels from range to range and if we see more range developing over a short distance this means price vol is getting weaker and mostly likely the players are not pushing it like ppl may think this why I care less for cot report cus the chart is the only report you’ll need. Before every crash it was reflected in price every nation’s economy will reflect the nation outcome that how thing go and will always before Rome became done for its economy struggled firstly
Now there’s no difference here
Gu has to rest more (range) and is trending less but you’ll probably don’t notice this. Now we can see a box rectangle which is a measured move range so now it’s moving in measured moves this is also a signs of sediment changing what goes in the range is coming out with the same velocity and pip movement gu is in need of a sale yet the market has to provide that entry so don’t go selling every red candle 🙄 and blame me for it jk tho but for real don’t judge gu on it pass trades look at its current state keep you targets tight and sl tighter until that correction comes as the market is still bullish and ppl will still project their investment. HOW TO TRADE LIKE THEM-
This pair isn’t ideal to swing trade as many traders many swing scalp it if that’s you gift or intraday and that maybe ideal for most traders so gl HOW TO TRADE LIKE THEM-